Some people asked me how the mathematics of vaccine testing works. So, because vaccine trials are actually a bit different than a traditional drug trial, and the popular press isn’t really clear on how they work (to put it mildly), I thought I would explain, in quite general terms how they work. Unfortunately, the mathematics … Read more
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916 Yes I know this isn’t math – but it just confirms that people need to do everything possible to not get this horrible, horrible disease, i.e. (re)read my post https://garycornell.com/2020/04/21/multiplication-of-probabilities-or-what-to-do-when-you-have-to-go-shopping/. (HT to Charlie Stross.)
Remember syllogisms? You know: All men are mortal Socrates is a man Therefore Socrates is mortal While this kind of reasoning dominated logic for 2,000 years, it is too limiting and modern (mathematical) logic goes far beyond these methods of reasoning. But hey they still work and are worth trotting out from time to time … Read more
Derek Lowe has his take on them and I was pleased to see that I basically got it right. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/20/new-data-on-the-cansino-vaccine https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/20/new-data-on-the-oxford-az-vaccine Next, Wired has a very good article on the need to inject some realism into the discussion by the mainstream media about the vaccines. As they point out, yes we should be encouraged, but … Read more
Oxford published the (combined) Phase 1/2 results of their modified Chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine and they were very very good (https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)31604-4). As I mentioned in a previous blog, the technology used by the Oxford vaccine candidate (a modified Chimpanzee cold virus) has a much longer track record than the mRNA vaccine candidates such as the one … Read more
The math is easy, the assumption on what percentage of the population you need to be immune to get to herd immunity is the issue: The usual estimates for herd immunity say that for Covid 19, you need about 60-70%% of people to be immune before herd immunity kicks in. The first generation of vaccines … Read more
Learning how to do “back of envelope” calculations is one of the most important tools you can master – it is a damn shame we don’t spend more time on them in school. The idea is you make some assumptions, round up and down often, so you can get a rough idea of what a … Read more
Sometimes the mathematician in me want to tear my hair out when I listen to the news. A 50% effective vaccine won’t stop the Pandemic, better drugs won’t stop the pandemic, the only thing that can stop the pandemic in both the short and long run is to bring the effective transmission rate r t … Read more
One of the great unsung heroes in my lifetime was a polymath named Frances Oldham Kelsey who, in an era when women had to overcome so much, earned both a PhD in pharmacology(1938) and an M.D.(1950). In 1960 she became “one of just a handful of medical officers” at the FDA. “One of the first … Read more
Well, you can do that if you keep in mind that there are three key numbers: The test positivity rate The total number of positive test recorded Number of new hospitalizations And, you also keep in mind that what is important is not only the numbers themselves but also if the numbers are increasing, staying … Read more