Health Policy

We are unlikely to have a vaccine that is proven effective for seniors for a long time unless dramatic action is taken now!

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(Cross posted with Medium) The risk of both hospitalization and death from Covid 19 increase greatly with age. Approximately 80% of the deaths from Covid 19 are people over 65 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html). The unfortunate truth is that a vaccine that is proven highly effective for seniors is not likely for a very long time, unless we dramatically increase the number … Read more

Numbers don’t lie, how bad has the US done?

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As I’ve said before, the actuarial concept of “excess deaths” together with analyzing the numbers of excess deaths is the only way to figure out how many Americans have really died from Covid 19. The following, very interesting paper: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771841 begins the process. The paper is mathematically sophisticated but the tables are useful for all. … Read more

There’s a Catch-22 that means we are unlikely to have a vaccine that is proven highly effective for seniors for a long time

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“That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” he observed. “It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed.” — a conversation in Joseph Heller’s novel “Catch-22” The risk of both hospitalization and death from Covid 19 increase greatly with age. Approximately 80% of the deaths from Covid 19 are people over 65 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html). Reporting to date has not … Read more

Dear Governor Evers: “Near exponential growth” is not a thing”

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“”Wisconsin is now experiencing unprecedented, near-exponential growth of the number of COVID-19 cases in our state,” said Governor Tony Evers in a video message.“ Dear Governor Evers, “Near exponential growth” is not a thing. You either have exponential growth or you don’t – and I’m sorry to tell you, you do. I promise I’ll write … Read more

Alas the usually awesome Rachel Maddow doesn’t do the math for herd immunity right

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I love back of envelope calculations and I love Rachel Maddow, she is so bright and usually does her homework. Yesterday, not so much. In this segment: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/math-on-trump-covid-strategy-has-millions-dying-before-it-works-91958341539 she completely screws up a back of envelope calculation on how many deaths might happen before we get to herd immunity. She starts out correctly: if you … Read more

Efficiency versus Safety: why an emergency use authorization for a Covid 19 vaccine is a terrible idea

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Noah Feldman, a very smart law professor at Harvard wrote a terribly misguided column for Bloomberg on an emergency use authoritrization for a Covid 19 vaccine (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-04/we-should-cheer-a-covid-19-vaccine-even-from-trump-s-fda). I wrote this response and submitted it to Bloomberg but they decided not to publish it. My mom used to tell me that just because I was able … Read more