We know testing is all important to get through this. People need to know if they have active virus so they can adjust their behavior accordingly. Anyone who tests positive should self quarantine for 14 days and we also need to do contact tracing to find the people that they have been near to. (I … Read more
I was talking to a couple of people and it became clear that people don’t completely grok what flattening the curve means. If you like it in the form of an aphorism, it means (to quote some unnamed wit): “Look you idiot, flattening the curve doesn’t mean you won’t get sick, it means there will … Read more
There are a lot of models of disease transmission out there, I hope to do multiple blog posts on them! But for now I want to point out a simple “back of envelope” calculation may give as good an estimate on the (scary) number of deaths as far more complicated models. All you have to … Read more
Not a math related post, just common sense this time. (It is inspired by WHO (which has great scientists if lousy leaders no matter what our both scientifically illiterate and innumerate president says), pointing out there is no evidence yet that having the virus means you would have enough antibodies to prevent another infection. Sure, … Read more
You know percentages are funny: it seems to be another one of those things (like exponential growth) where our first instincts are often wrong. The difference is that most people can do the calculations quickly enough so that they won’t persist in believing the wrong thing after you point the mistake out to them. Take … Read more
My last blog said “you should stay at home damn it.” Problem is, unless you are a millionaire survivalist, we all have to go out occasionally to the supermarket. So the question is, how can you reduce the odds of catching Covid 19? How can you feel reasonably safe psychologically and in reality? The answer … Read more
Behavioral economists have shown our brains are hard wired to certain ways of thinking that are “wrong” – well at least to people who still seem to believe in “homo economicus”. We seem to have have hard wired ways of thinking, like the “prospect theory” that won Kahneman the Nobel Prize in Economics that shows … Read more