Even Fauci needs to remember how important a back of envelope calculation is

Fauci is a great virologist, but he doesn’t seem to (automatically) do a back of envelope calculation before throwing out a statement. And so one of his most recent statements (on voting), doesn’t pass the smell test.

So what happened? Fauci said this week there is “no reason” Americans can’t vote in person for the 2020 presidential election, so long as voters follow proper social distancing guidelines amid the coronavirus pandemic.

“I think if carefully done, according to the guidelines, there’s no reason that I can see why that not be the case,” Fauci told ABC News this week. “If you go and wear a mask, if you observe the physical distancing, and don’t have a crowded situation, there’s no reason why we  shouldn’t be able to do that.”

Huh? Every 880 people standing on line¹ requires a one mile line. And, since we are voting in November, quite commonly in the cold and rain. Calculating how many people will be trying to vote at any given time is hard, one can imagine doing the voting over many days. Still, it does seem that, given the reduced number of polling stations, isn’t it likely it will be in the many hundreds pretty much continuously in many places? Anyway, one thing I do know is that you take your estimate of the number of people and divide it by 880 to convert it into miles of people standing on line!

1. Yes, I know most people would say “standing in line” but I am born and bred in NYC and we stand “on-line” (www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2007/05/on-line.html also see http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~kemmer/Words/shibboleth).