Obviously great great news but we aren’t home free yet

Efficacy in the 18-55 year old group much higher than expected! That augers well for seniors even without efficacy data. But we are a long way from home free. Issues to keep in mind:

  • Only 25 million people (50 million doses/2) worldwide can be treated in the first few months. Only 500 million people worldwide in the first year (1 billion doses/2).
  • It’s an extremely difficult vaccine to transport: https://garycornell.com/2020/08/30/back-of-envelope-calculation-the-number-and-the-costs-of-freezers-needed-for-the-pfizer-vaccine/
  • Duration of immunity completely up in the air as is the effect on preventing serious cases and deaths – and again no real info on seniors for the reasons I ‘ve written about at length. But no reason not to be hopeful.
  • Long term safety day won’t be available for a while – probably mid 2021. First responders will be participants in one of the largest safety aka Phase 4 trials ever. But again there is no reason not to be hopeful.

But it couldn’t be better news, everything I have read indicated that people were hoping for a 70% efficacy signal at best, Pfizer got a 90% signal!

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