Opening schools: a Syllogistical approach

Remember syllogisms? You  know:

1. All men are mortal
2. Socrates is a man
3. Therefore Socrates is mortal

While this kind of reasoning dominated logic for 2,000 years, it is too limiting and modern (mathematical) logic goes far beyond these methods of reasoning. But hey they still work and are worth trotting out from time to time – like when deciding whether to open schools during the worst pandemic in 100 years. So here’s one I was thinking about as I listened to some of the insane discussion about opening schools on the news and from the politicians:

1. People at a high risk of dying from Covid 19 should do everything they can to avoid exposure to Covid 19.
2. Teachers are people.
3. Therefore, teachers at a high risk of  dying from Covid 19 should do everything they can to avoid exposure to Covid 19.

Now we throw in a external fact or two derived from the best science we currently have (and yes I know it does take us beyond the limiting world of the classic syllogism):

1. Roughly 18% of school teachers are in a high risk group because of their age and I don’t how many are in a high risk group because of medical issues.
2. Teens and tweens transmit the virus at least as efficiently as adults (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article) but even younger children can transmit it to adults.

Conclusion the first: At least 18% of teachers are playing Russian roulette if they step foot into a classroom in the fall and asking them to do so borders on the unspeakable.

O.K. time for another (slightly non-standard form) of a syllogism:

1. Children (especially those from lower income or immigrant communities) often live in multi-generational households.
2. Multi-generational households are very likely to contain people at a high risk of dying from  Covid 19.
3. Therefore children are often very likely to encounter people in their households who are at a high risk of dying from Covid 19.

Conclusion the second (using B above): If schools reopen, children who live in multi-generational households are very likely to transmit what is a  deadly disease to their older relatives.

I could keep on coming up with lots more syllogisms about how crazy reopening schools in your community are if your community has not “crushed the curve”, but I’m not going to. Why? Because I can’t help thinking about people like my Mom, who would certainly have been in a high risk group for most of her teaching career when I was growing up, or how older adults in poor or immigrant communities are the ones most likely to die from a rush to open schools. 

This particular defiance of elementary logic applied to the question of opening schools soon,  just makes this mathematician sick to his stomach.